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Thursday, April 17, 2008

Forex : Part II.... Continued

What time frames work best in FX?

Intraday Trading Intraday traders will usually hold positions intraday or even as long as overnight. In this instance, they will refer to 5 minute and 10-minute charts.

Swing Trading Swing traders, who tend to take their positions and hold for several hours to approximately 4 days, will usually refer to hourly time frames in placing their positions.

Position of Long-Term Trading Position of longer term traders, will refer to daily and weekly charts. The weekly charts will establish the longer term perspective and assist in placing entries in the shorter term daily. They tend to hold for longer than 1 day for as long as even a couple of months to a year.

Using Multiple Time Frames Another key time frame consideration has to do with a time screen. Here, the trader will refer to a triple or double screen. Considering the former, the trader will rely on the daily for the longer term perspective, while establishing a similar pattern in the intermediate (hourly chart) and short term (10 minutes). If all three frames line up for a short opportunity, the trader will more than likely attempt to capture the shortfall and place a sell. In the event of the double screen, the trader is simply considering one time frame, daily, in establishing the entry in the short term, hourly.

Technical analysis pitfalls...when it WON'T work

Technical analysis will not work when fundamental factors or economic data becomes the main focus of the market as participants become sensitive to any developments.

News Releases With speculation mounting on the possible outcomes, fundamental news releases like US non-farm payrolls have created situations in the market that do not adhere to technical analysis as volume and volatility spikes. Although the aftermath more than not will once again adhere, the mass speculation that ensues makes sure that traders are scrapping for the best price available in filling their positions rather than applying your everyday moving average or price oscillator.

Central Bank Intervention Central bank intervention can also throw a "monkey wrench" into the best technical analysis. The Bank of Japan serves as an excellent example. When the Bank of Japan intervenes, the main objective is to not only adjust spot prices but also to make sure speculators are flushed out. As a result, bank officials will place entries in unlikely levels, thereby ultimately establishing a support or resistance level. Once intervention efforts are spotted, volatility once again spikes as speculators will attempt to be captured in a momentum trade and others attempt to exit at the best price available.

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